In a shocking upset, Democrat Bill Foster has defeated Jim Oberweis 53%-47%in the special election for Illinois' 14th District, formerly held by none other than Speaker Dennis Hastert. (Score another one for Democratic physicists in the House--my representative and former Swarthmore prof Rush Holt is one as well.) Considering that the district went 56% for Bush in 2004, this is a major pickup if the Dems can hold on to the seat this fall.
And, since I have an obligation to tie everything to the primary, it is worth pointing out that a certain Illinois Senator's endorsement and GOTV machine helped push Foster to victory. You can probably chalk up another superdelegate for Mr. Obama.
Sunday, March 09, 2008
Friday, March 07, 2008
Florida and Michigan
Perhaps seeing the writing on the wall, the Clinton campaign is restarting the highly controversial battle to seat the delegates from Florida and Michigan at the national convention.
The states were stripped of their delegates for moving their primaries earlier than allowed by DNC rules, presumably to guarantee that their primaries would have an effect. (Deeply ironic turn of events of course--if they hadn't moved the primaries, they would certainly have had an effect on the race. Hindsight is 20/20, all that stuff.) Thus the primaries existed as mere formalities, stunts-- Obama and Edwards weren't even on the ballot in Michigan, leading to this amusing suggestion from DailyKos.
At first glance, Hillary seems to have a point. The voters in Florida and Michigan do deserve a voice in the primary. It's democracy, right? Is it fair that state legislatures had the effect of disenfranchising large groups of citizens?
But it's not that simple: Hillary's proposal for a simple allocation of the delegates from the primary results is hardly democratic. While no one is denying that everyone deserves a vote, they also deserve the assurance of fair elections--ones where all viewpoints and candidates are given an opportunity. Howard Dean gets it right in his quote in John M. Broder's piece today in the NYT:
Voters in Florida and Michigan are right to be upset; they should seriously consider voting out some state legislators in the next election cycle. But Hillary's faux-democratic, last-ditch grab for delegates is not the right solution.
The states were stripped of their delegates for moving their primaries earlier than allowed by DNC rules, presumably to guarantee that their primaries would have an effect. (Deeply ironic turn of events of course--if they hadn't moved the primaries, they would certainly have had an effect on the race. Hindsight is 20/20, all that stuff.) Thus the primaries existed as mere formalities, stunts-- Obama and Edwards weren't even on the ballot in Michigan, leading to this amusing suggestion from DailyKos.
At first glance, Hillary seems to have a point. The voters in Florida and Michigan do deserve a voice in the primary. It's democracy, right? Is it fair that state legislatures had the effect of disenfranchising large groups of citizens?
But it's not that simple: Hillary's proposal for a simple allocation of the delegates from the primary results is hardly democratic. While no one is denying that everyone deserves a vote, they also deserve the assurance of fair elections--ones where all viewpoints and candidates are given an opportunity. Howard Dean gets it right in his quote in John M. Broder's piece today in the NYT:
Howard Dean, chairman of the Democratic Party, said on Thursday that it was up to the states, not the national party, to come up with a solution. But Mr. Dean ruled out seating the delegations based on the voting in January.
“You can’t change the rule in the middle of the game,” he said in an interview on NBC’s “Today” program.
Voters in Florida and Michigan are right to be upset; they should seriously consider voting out some state legislators in the next election cycle. But Hillary's faux-democratic, last-ditch grab for delegates is not the right solution.
Wednesday, March 05, 2008
So What Has Changed?
Well, once again Hillary was able to pull off crucial wins and revitalize her campaign. Looking back on the last couple of weeks, I think expectations of Obama's success in Texas and Ohio were considerably inflated--in terms of demographics, they certainly look like Hillary states. Obama's amazing momentum may have changed voters' minds in early polls, but Hillary's formidable campaign structure and effective attack ads brought them back to earth. And the bad weather in Ohio almost certainly lowered the turnout of Republican Obama supporters.
But how will this affect the race overall? Looking at current delegate counts (Obama actually won more Texas primacaucus delegates), the short answer is "not much." According to CNN, Obama is up 1520-1424 in pledged delegates, a lead which is likely to increase after the Wyoming primary this Saturday. Playing with the delegate counter game, it's going to be extremely tough for Hillary to catch up with the pledged delegates; as has been said for a long time, her only hope is with the supers.
And, despite the connections of her husband, that is not going to be easy. Though she can make a case that she is a stronger candidate because of her big-state wins, she is polling worse than Obama in a matchup with McCain. Considering that she is most likely going to have to convince supers to overrule the pledged delegate count, Obama's head-to-head advantage is going to put a major dent in her case. Hillary's performance will give her an excuse to drag on, sure--but change the final result? I doubt it.
But how will this affect the race overall? Looking at current delegate counts (Obama actually won more Texas primacaucus delegates), the short answer is "not much." According to CNN, Obama is up 1520-1424 in pledged delegates, a lead which is likely to increase after the Wyoming primary this Saturday. Playing with the delegate counter game, it's going to be extremely tough for Hillary to catch up with the pledged delegates; as has been said for a long time, her only hope is with the supers.
And, despite the connections of her husband, that is not going to be easy. Though she can make a case that she is a stronger candidate because of her big-state wins, she is polling worse than Obama in a matchup with McCain. Considering that she is most likely going to have to convince supers to overrule the pledged delegate count, Obama's head-to-head advantage is going to put a major dent in her case. Hillary's performance will give her an excuse to drag on, sure--but change the final result? I doubt it.
March 4th Speeches
Tuesday, March 04, 2008
As of 11 PM. . .
Hillary has grabbed Rhode Island (no surprise) and Ohio by what appears to be a large margin--up by 16 according to NYT.com with 52% reporting. Looks like another "D'oh" for the Obamacentric Mr. Zogby, who had them tied as of yesterday and Hil up by 3 today. . .
As expected, Obama dominated in Vermont.
And, as expected, Texas is down to the wire. Obama was up early, but as of now (33% reporting) Hillary is clinging to a 2 point lead.
In terms of the delegate count, Obama can't be upset with this result. Considering that 35% of the Texas delegates are decided by caucus--Obama's specialty in this campaign--a virtual tie in the primary gives him a great shot to win the statewide delegate battle. Hillary will almost certainly stay in the race, but pressure will undoubtedly continue to mount.
Of course, tonight is also one of national sadness, after the concession of everyone's favorite successful dieter and Republican candidate (and, I suppose, his number one policy advisor):
Happy trails, Huck.
As expected, Obama dominated in Vermont.
And, as expected, Texas is down to the wire. Obama was up early, but as of now (33% reporting) Hillary is clinging to a 2 point lead.
In terms of the delegate count, Obama can't be upset with this result. Considering that 35% of the Texas delegates are decided by caucus--Obama's specialty in this campaign--a virtual tie in the primary gives him a great shot to win the statewide delegate battle. Hillary will almost certainly stay in the race, but pressure will undoubtedly continue to mount.
Of course, tonight is also one of national sadness, after the concession of everyone's favorite successful dieter and Republican candidate (and, I suppose, his number one policy advisor):
Happy trails, Huck.
Monday, March 03, 2008
Up In The Air
Polls are tightening up across the board. David Kurtz at Talking Points Memo has a quality post summarizing recent movements. Using pollster.com data (a poll of polls), Obama has a .2% lead in Texas, and Clinton is up by 6% in Ohio. An Obama sweep, despite his massive gains in recent weeks, seems extremely unlikely.
And that is significant. If he is able to pull it off, Hillary is going to have trouble justifying staying in the race--but a split gives her an angle to keep on battling. Considering Obama's amazing string of victories--and largely landslide victories, at that--stopping his momentum is no easy task. But her strong comebacks and possible victories against great odds can be spun as a return to viability.
Now, I'm not saying that she'll ride tomorrow to a primary victory; even with a sweep there is virtually no chance that she'll make up enough pledged delegates to put much of a dent in Obama's lead, and superdelegates will almost certainly continue to shift towards Obama. But it does give her an excuse to stay in. Despite the calls from a number of party leaders, I don't see the race ending for another few weeks at least.
Thoughts?
And that is significant. If he is able to pull it off, Hillary is going to have trouble justifying staying in the race--but a split gives her an angle to keep on battling. Considering Obama's amazing string of victories--and largely landslide victories, at that--stopping his momentum is no easy task. But her strong comebacks and possible victories against great odds can be spun as a return to viability.
Now, I'm not saying that she'll ride tomorrow to a primary victory; even with a sweep there is virtually no chance that she'll make up enough pledged delegates to put much of a dent in Obama's lead, and superdelegates will almost certainly continue to shift towards Obama. But it does give her an excuse to stay in. Despite the calls from a number of party leaders, I don't see the race ending for another few weeks at least.
Thoughts?
Sunday, March 02, 2008
Neck-and-neck in TX
Well, perhaps it's not all over. A couple of new polls show a statistical dead heat in Texas, a major change from a few days ago.
American Research Group, Inc: Clinton 47% Obama 46%
Fort Worth Star-Telegram/McClatchy/MSNBC: Clinton 46% Obama 47%
Zogby still has Obama up by 4 (47%-43%).
Should be an interesting next couple of days. If Hillary can stop the Obamatrain (or maybe rein in the Obamahorse, to continue the metaphor in the subject. . .)by grabbing TX and OH, who knows what will happen.
American Research Group, Inc: Clinton 47% Obama 46%
Fort Worth Star-Telegram/McClatchy/MSNBC: Clinton 46% Obama 47%
Zogby still has Obama up by 4 (47%-43%).
Should be an interesting next couple of days. If Hillary can stop the Obamatrain (or maybe rein in the Obamahorse, to continue the metaphor in the subject. . .)by grabbing TX and OH, who knows what will happen.
Saturday, March 01, 2008
Obamabias?
Is the media playing favorites in the Democratic primary? Hard to believe, I know. But an article in today's NYT provides evidence that a certain Senator from Illinois is getting better treatment:
Pretty damning statistics. While I'm not arguing that polls provide absolute truth, I can't say I'm surprised at the survey's findings. As I see it, the basic media coverage of the primary has gone like this:
In a New York Times/CBS News telephone poll conducted Feb. 20-24 and released Tuesday, nearly half of those respondents who described themselves as voters in Democratic primaries or caucuses said the news media had been “harder” on Mrs. Clinton than other candidates. (Only about 1 in 10 suggested the news media had been harder on Mr. Obama.)
Pretty damning statistics. While I'm not arguing that polls provide absolute truth, I can't say I'm surprised at the survey's findings. As I see it, the basic media coverage of the primary has gone like this:
- Pre-Iowa: Obama is the inspirational underdog against the old guard.
- Post-Iowa: With a big lead in New Hampshire, Obama is the shoe-in.
- Post-NH: Obama back to underdog.
- Post-February: Primary over.
First Post
Hello, my name is Jacob, and I'm going to be bothering you with some blogging for the HC Dems. I'm a sophomore from New Jersey, and have been interested in politics ever since I made a fool of myself when I was seven years old at a campaign rally for Senator Robert Torricelli . Not too proud of that one now, but at least I got to meet this guy. (Cooler picture.) I've been a nerd ever since.
If you have any questions or comments, feel free to comment here or send an email to jwaters (at) haverford (dot) edu.
Monday, February 18, 2008
Saturday, February 16, 2008
Exciting Internship Opportunities with Congressman Joe Sestak!
I just received this from Molly Parzen, the President of the Bryn Mawr College Democrats:
"Congressman Sestak (D-PA 7) was elected last year in a landslide victory against 10 term incumbent Curt Weldon. As his 2008 re-election campaign kicks into high gear in the coming months and over the summer, we are looking for dedicated, hard working and motivated interns. A Sestak for Congress Internship is unlike many other political internships out there. Unlike most campaign internships where you might be delegated to phone calls, canvassing and data entry, on Sestak’s Campaign you will be given important responsibilities and be trusted with crucial work covering many different aspects of the campaign. Many of the people who are paid staffers now started out just two years ago as interns. I really cannot stress how rewarding these internships are and I sincerely hope that some of you take advantage of this phenomenal opportunity.
If you have any questions, concerns or would like more information, please contact Molly C. Parzen, College Coordinator for Sestak for Congress and President of Bryn Mawr College Democrats at mollyparzen@gmail.com or 1-845-661-1093.
If you would like to apply for an internship please send a resume with a cover letter to george@sestakforcongress.com."
"Congressman Sestak (D-PA 7) was elected last year in a landslide victory against 10 term incumbent Curt Weldon. As his 2008 re-election campaign kicks into high gear in the coming months and over the summer, we are looking for dedicated, hard working and motivated interns. A Sestak for Congress Internship is unlike many other political internships out there. Unlike most campaign internships where you might be delegated to phone calls, canvassing and data entry, on Sestak’s Campaign you will be given important responsibilities and be trusted with crucial work covering many different aspects of the campaign. Many of the people who are paid staffers now started out just two years ago as interns. I really cannot stress how rewarding these internships are and I sincerely hope that some of you take advantage of this phenomenal opportunity.
If you have any questions, concerns or would like more information, please contact Molly C. Parzen, College Coordinator for Sestak for Congress and President of Bryn Mawr College Democrats at mollyparzen@gmail.com or 1-845-661-1093.
If you would like to apply for an internship please send a resume with a cover letter to george@sestakforcongress.com."
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